SPRINGTIME IN LURBLAND

It’s a thorny question and one that has caused me sleepless nights. When does spring end and summer begin?

Stay with this if you have any interest in planning.

The astronomical definition has spring starting with the March equinox between the 21st and 23rd and ending between June 20th and 22nd – the summer solstice.

Meteorological spring is the months of March, April and May.

Now when everyone was rushing off to read the small print of the amendments to the National Policy Planning Framework as contained in the consultation for the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill (this the longest multi-syllabic sentence I’ve ever written), I was only looking for one tiny detail.

When would we have the OUTCOME of the consultation?

It’s there in plain sight in paragraph 5 of the introduction: ‘The government will respond to this consultation by spring 2023…’.

So, Mr Gove has, at worst, until late June to publish the outcome of the consultation.

Now as you know there are local elections on May 4. Many councils are controlled by the Conservatives and the big issue is housing. That’s why the LURB suggests giving more power to councils to decide if it’s needed (not) and where (anywhere but here).

Now Mr Gove and his civil servants are not stupid (shut up at the back) and they know that before you run any consultation you first write the conclusions and then work backwards.

You don’t believe me…I worked in the public sector for a number of years and that’s exactly what happens. The rule is: don’t launch a consultation until you know the outcome.

So the party will be looking closely at the May results and there are three for the Conservatives:

•          Could have been worse;

•          A total disaster;

•          Head for the hills.

These results will be a weathervane for the Tories as to their stance at the General Election to be held before Christmas 2024.

In turn the results will have an effect on results of the consultation on the LURB.

If the Conservatives lose control of a huge number of councils, the government will be reluctant to hand over control of housing numbers to the Lib Dems, Greens and an assortment of residents’ associations.

So Mr Gove may decide that he will stick with his 300,000 new homes per year – as per the draft LURB – and let the Lib Dems et al deliver them. Ha. Ha. Ha.

Stranger things have happened.

Have a good weekend.

Tom